Sinner did not face a break point and won 84% of points on his first serve. It was the kind of controlled, low-risk performance that has become his trademark on indoor hard courts, and it leaves him one win away from the title in Paris.
Medvedev arrived in the semi-final in decent form, but he never found a way into the Italian’s service games. Once Sinner had his nose in front in each set, the result was rarely in doubt. He tried to vary the pace with slices and changed his court position several times, yet none of those adjustments made a lasting difference.
How the match was won
The pattern was set from the opening games. Sinner served with good rhythm, hit his spots on both sides of the court and rarely allowed Medvedev to start a rally from a neutral position. When the Russian did get the ball back in play, he was usually pushed deep behind the baseline.
Medvedev likes to stand far back and absorb pace, waiting for an opponent to miss. Sinner refused to give him that game. He took the ball early, changed direction with his backhand down the line and came forward whenever a short reply gave him the chance.
The decisive moments came on Medvedev’s serve. Sinner read the second delivery well, stepped inside the court to return and turned a handful of loose points into the breaks he needed. One break in each set proved enough, because his own service games were almost untouchable.
Medvedev’s missing weapons
Medvedev’s first-serve percentage dipped at key moments, and that left him exposed on second serve against one of the best returners on tour. He also struggled to find depth on his backhand cross-court, a shot that usually keeps opponents pinned to the baseline.
There were spells when the former US Open champion looked frustrated with the speed of the court and the bright conditions in the hall. He created a few long rallies but never converted them into real pressure on the scoreboard.
The numbers behind the win
The statistics underline how one-sided the evening was. Sinner’s service numbers were close to perfect, while Medvedev was forced to save break points in several of his own games.
| Indicator | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Sets won | 2 | 0 |
| Break points faced | 0 | More than one |
| First-serve points won by Sinner | 84% | n/a |
| Pre-match odds | 1.30 | 3.50 |
Bookmakers had made Sinner a clear favourite before the start, with a price of 1.30 against 3.50 for Medvedev, and the match followed that script closely. Anyone following the tournament on betting markets should remember that prices only reflect probabilities: there is no such thing as a certain result, and betting is for adults aged 18 and over.
A familiar pattern in this rivalry
Medvedev was for a long time one of the players Sinner found hardest to solve. That has changed over the past few seasons. The Italian has improved his serve, added variety to his game and become far more comfortable dictating rallies against defensive opponents.
Indoor events suit him particularly well. The conditions are stable, there is no wind or sun to manage, and his flat, early-ball style becomes even more effective on a quick surface. Paris has once again shown why he is so hard to beat under a roof.
- Sinner has had the upper hand in their recent meetings.
- His return position inside the baseline has caused the Russian problems on second serve.
- Medvedev has rarely been able to extend rallies long enough to frustrate him indoors.
What comes next: Alcaraz in the final
The win sets up a final against Carlos Alcaraz, who came from a set down to beat Alexander Zverev in the other semi-final. It is the meeting most fans wanted to see at the last Masters 1000 event of the season.
The two players have shared the biggest titles in recent years, and each final between them has been a test of contrasting styles. Alcaraz brings variety, speed and drop shots; Sinner brings depth, precision and relentless pressure from the baseline.
Recovery could play a part. Sinner’s semi-final was short and comfortable, while Alcaraz spent longer on court against Zverev. Both will have had a full night to rest, but the Italian will feel the fresher of the two.
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